Alessandria 0-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alessandria vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Monza at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alessandria — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alessandria's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Monza away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alessandria have won 0, Monza 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Monza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 48% versus Monza 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 38% | Monza 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.03 xG and Monza 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.824 / defence 1.165 | Monza attack 1.127 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.077. Data: 29 Alessandria games / 29 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 24% | Draw 33% | Monza 43%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Monza 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 50% | Monza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 24% | Draw 33% | Monza 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Alessandria 1.03 / Monza 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.824 / def 1.165 | Monza attack 1.127 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Monza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Monza kick off?
Alessandria vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Monza?
Alessandria 0 - 3 Monza.
Where is Alessandria vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Monza part of?
Alessandria vs Monza is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 24% chance of winning, Monza a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alessandria and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Monza in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.82) and Monza's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
24%
4.16
33%
2.99
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.44
1.42
Monza xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.42 for Monza, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alessandria come into this having played 29 games, going 6W 7D 16L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alessandria's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.29 points per game from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
The Goals Picture
Alessandria are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.62 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Monza in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Monza have gone 14W 9D 6L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.14 PPG; Monza away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Monza in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alessandria and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Alessandria 0-3 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 50%, Monza 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Alessandria and 43% for Monza.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alessandria's games and 64% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alessandria vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Alessandria's recent games and 43% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Monza tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Monza in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Alessandria 0-3 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.03 xG and Monza 1.42 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alessandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Monza attack 1.13 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 24% | Draw 33% | Monza 43%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 38%, Monza 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.