Cremonese 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cremonese against 1.30 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Sudtirol 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 49% | Sudtirol 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.89 xG and Sudtirol 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.807 / defence 1.110 | Sudtirol attack 1.048 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.193. Data: 9 Cremonese games / 46 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 21% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 45%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.76 | Draw 2.86 | Sudtirol 2.22. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Sudtirol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 21% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Cremonese 0.89 / Sudtirol 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.807 / def 1.110 | Sudtirol attack 1.048 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cremonese vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sudtirol part of?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 21% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Sudtirol in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.05x) against Cremonese's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 9/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
21%
4.88
35%
2.88
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.28
1.39
Sudtirol xG
4.88
21%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
19.54
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.39 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Cremonese have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 8W 16D 23L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 18W 20D 9L from 47 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 0.83 PPG from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.09 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 16D 23L in their last 47 games (0.85 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 20D 9L in their last 47 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.83 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-4 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 44%, Sudtirol 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Cremonese and 26% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sudtirol in 48%; Cremonese have failed to score in 44% of games; Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cremonese's recent matches and 35% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cremonese's recent games and 26% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.89 xG and Sudtirol 1.39 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Sudtirol attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 21% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 45%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Sudtirol 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.