Reggina 0-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Perugia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Perugia have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggina lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Reggina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Perugia — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 39% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 36% | Perugia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.09 xG and Perugia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.957 / defence 1.119 | Perugia attack 0.981 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.114. Data: 28 Reggina games / 28 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 29% | Draw 35% | Perugia 36%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Perugia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Perugia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 29% | Draw 35% | Perugia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggina 1.09 / Perugia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.957 / def 1.119 | Perugia attack 0.981 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Perugia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Perugia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Perugia kick off?
Reggina vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Perugia?
Reggina 0 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Reggina vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Perugia part of?
Reggina vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 29% chance of winning, Perugia a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggina and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Reggina and Perugia in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.96) and Perugia's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.98x) against Reggina's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
29%
3.41
35%
2.86
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.32
1.22
Perugia xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Reggina and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reggina and 1.22 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina's recent record stands at 11W 6D 11L from 28 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 6L across 28 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Reggina against 1.50 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Perugia's away record stands at 6W 6D 2L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.11 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Perugia in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Perugia have gone 10W 12D 6L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.64 PPG; Perugia away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Reggina or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Perugia in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2023, when Perugia 1-3 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 43%, Perugia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggina) and 50% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Perugia in 43%; Reggina have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Reggina's recent matches and 57% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggina's recent games and 50% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Perugia tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Perugia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Reggina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Reggina 0-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.09 xG and Perugia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Perugia attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 29% | Draw 35% | Perugia 36%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 36%, Perugia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.39 PPG, Perugia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Perugia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.