Carrarese 2-2 Pescara – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 55%, yet in-form Pescara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Pescara make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Carrarese have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Carrarese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Pescara's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Pescara have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pescara are 0.50 PPG clear of Carrarese over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Carrarese 2–2 Pescara — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 70%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Pescara 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 47% | Pescara 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.88 xG and Pescara 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.016 / defence 0.886 | Pescara attack 1.063 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.105. Pescara's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carrarese's projected output up. Data: built from Carrarese's last 72 games and Pescara's last 34.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 55% | Draw 26% | Pescara 19%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.81 | Draw 3.85 | Pescara 5.30. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pescara (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carrarese's last 10 home games and Pescara's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Carrarese 30% (last 10 home games) | Pescara 60% (last 10 away games).

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