Pescara 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pescara at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pescara vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia to face Pescara in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pescara (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pescara have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pescara lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pescara half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 66% and Juve Stabia 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 69% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.57 xG and Juve Stabia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.036 / defence 1.225 | Juve Stabia attack 0.902 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.100. Data: 35 Pescara games / 73 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 44% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 28%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pescara at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pescara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 50% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 44% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Pescara 1.57 / Juve Stabia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.036 / def 1.225 | Juve Stabia attack 0.902 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Pescara (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Juve Stabia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Pescara vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Juve Stabia?
Pescara 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Pescara vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Juve Stabia part of?
Pescara vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 44% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pescara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pescara and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Pescara 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Pescara and Juve Stabia in?
Pescara (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pescara's attack rating (1.04) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.90x) against Pescara's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pescara Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.49
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.78
1.22
Juve Stabia xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pescara and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Pescara and 1.22 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pescara's recent record stands at 7W 12D 16L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 8L across 35 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pescara heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pescara are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 11W 16D 8L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Juve Stabia away?
Pescara's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.18 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Pescara or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pescara 1-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 59%, Juve Stabia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Pescara and 59% for Juve Stabia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Pescara's games and 59% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pescara's matches and 59% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Pescara and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 36, as Pescara and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.57 xG and Juve Stabia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 44% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 28%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 69%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.