🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Padova (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Stadio Euganeo, Padova have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Reggiana have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Reggiana have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Padova against 0.90 for Reggiana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Padova lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Padova winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Padova — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Reggiana — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 53% versus Reggiana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 41% | Reggiana 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.26 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.758 / defence 1.157 | Reggiana attack 0.733 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.110. Padova's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Padova games / 72 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Reggiana 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Padova 60% | Reggiana 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights