Brescia 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Venezia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brescia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 55% versus Venezia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 38% | Venezia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.61 xG and Venezia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.095 / defence 0.853 | Venezia attack 1.115 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Data: 47 Brescia games / 9 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 4.00. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Brescia 1.61 / Venezia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.095 / def 0.853 | Venezia attack 1.115 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Brescia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Venezia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Venezia kick off?
Brescia vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Venezia?
Brescia 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Brescia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Venezia part of?
Brescia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 50% chance of winning, Venezia a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brescia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Venezia in?
Brescia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.09x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.03
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.68
1.07
Venezia xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Brescia and 1.07 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 16D 11L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.74 PPG from 47 outings (8W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Brescia's home form reads 11W 8D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.96 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 20W 16D 11L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Venezia have gone 8W 11D 28L in their last 47 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Venezia away?
Brescia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.78 PPG; Venezia away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Brescia or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Venezia in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brescia's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Venezia 2-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 56%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Brescia) and 48% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Venezia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Brescia's games and 56% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Brescia's recent games and 48% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Venezia tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 10, as Brescia and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.61 xG and Venezia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against Venezia attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 38%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.