Pisa 4-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet in-form Modena provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Modena have collected 1.33 PPG across 9 Serie B outings this season: 4W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.22. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.63 PPG clear of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 67% and Modena 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Modena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.08 xG and Modena 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.744 / defence 0.909 | Modena attack 0.777 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.127. Pisa's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Pisa games / 9 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 32% | Modena 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 40% | Modena 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 32% | Modena 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Pisa 1.08 / Modena 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.744 / def 0.909 | Modena attack 0.777 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Modena xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Modena kick off?
Pisa vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Modena?
Pisa 4 - 2 Modena.
Where is Pisa vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Modena part of?
Pisa vs Modena is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Modena a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pisa and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Modena in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Modena (all comps): 4W-0D-5L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.74x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.78x) against Pisa's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.16
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.88
0.80
Modena xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pisa and 0.80 for Modena, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 4D 4L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Modena's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Modena in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Modena have gone 4W 0D 5L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.50 PPG; Modena away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
4
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Modena have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 25%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Pisa) and 50% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 75% of games; Modena in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pisa's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Modena tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Modena 4-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.08 xG and Modena 0.80 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Modena attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 32% | Modena 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Modena 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Pisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.