Cagliari 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Brescia meet at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Brescia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cagliari against 1.60 for Brescia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Brescia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.35 xG and Brescia 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.800 / defence 1.318 | Brescia attack 1.114 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Cagliari games / 46 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 32% | Draw 24% | Brescia 44%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Brescia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Brescia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 32% | Draw 24% | Brescia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Cagliari 1.35 / Brescia 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.800 / def 1.318 | Brescia attack 1.114 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Brescia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Brescia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Brescia kick off?
Cagliari vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Brescia?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Cagliari vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Brescia part of?
Cagliari vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 32% chance of winning, Brescia a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cagliari and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Brescia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.11x) against Cagliari's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
32%
3.10
24%
4.12
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.96
1.61
Brescia xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.61 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari's recent record stands at 9W 14D 23L from 46 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 10L across 46 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 5W 5D 12L from 22 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 9W 7D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.35 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 9W 14D 23L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Brescia have gone 20W 16D 10L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.91 PPG; Brescia away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Brescia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Brescia 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Brescia?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cagliari) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cagliari's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Brescia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Brescia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Brescia 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.35 xG and Brescia 1.61 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.80 / defence 1.32 against Brescia attack 1.11 / defence 1.34, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 32% | Draw 24% | Brescia 44%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Brescia 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.