Ternana 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ternana welcome Genoa to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.90 PPG versus Genoa's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ternana's 30% rate and Genoa's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genoa trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 62% versus Genoa 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.17 xG and Genoa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.082 / defence 0.828 | Genoa attack 1.001 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.116. Data: 47 Ternana games / 9 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 30% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 30% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 30% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Ternana 1.17 / Genoa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.082 / def 0.828 | Genoa attack 1.001 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Ternana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Genoa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Genoa kick off?
Ternana vs Genoa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Genoa?
Ternana 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Ternana vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Genoa part of?
Ternana vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 42% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ternana and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Genoa in?
Ternana (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ternana's attack at 1.08x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
42%
2.41
30%
3.37
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.10
0.93
Genoa xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ternana and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ternana and 0.93 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 10D 16L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.98 PPG from 47 outings (9W 19D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ternana's home form reads 12W 3D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.81 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Genoa in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 21W 10D 16L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Genoa have gone 9W 19D 19L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Genoa away?
Ternana's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.70 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ternana or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genoa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ternana
0
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Genoa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 39%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 39% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Ternana's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 39% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Genoa tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Genoa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Ternana 1-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.17 xG and Genoa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Genoa attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 42% | Draw 30% | Genoa 29%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.