Venezia 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Frosinone are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Frosinone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.06 xG and Frosinone 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.768 / defence 1.300 | Frosinone attack 0.862 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.078. Venezia's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Venezia games / 46 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 39%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Frosinone 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Frosinone 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Venezia 1.06 / Frosinone 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.768 / def 1.300 | Frosinone attack 0.862 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Frosinone xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Frosinone kick off?
Venezia vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Frosinone?
Venezia 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Venezia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Frosinone part of?
Venezia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 32% chance of winning, Frosinone a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Venezia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Frosinone in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.77x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.51
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.27
1.21
Frosinone xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Venezia and 1.21 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 8W 11D 27L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 20W 13D 13L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.65 PPG from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 8W 11D 27L in their last 46 games (0.76 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.65 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Venezia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Frosinone in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Venezia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2023, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Frosinone have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Frosinone 1-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Frosinone 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 44% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 26% of games; Frosinone in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 48% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Venezia 1-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.06 xG and Frosinone 1.21 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Frosinone attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 32% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.