Reggina 2-3 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Perugia have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Reggina's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Perugia's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggina lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Perugia — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 30% versus Perugia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 38% | Perugia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.92 xG and Perugia 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.501 / defence 0.731 | Perugia attack 0.721 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Reggina's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Reggina games / 47 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 69% | Draw 20% | Perugia 11%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Perugia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Reggina (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 20% | Perugia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 69% | Draw 20% | Perugia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 38% | xG Reggina 1.92 / Perugia 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.501 / def 0.731 | Perugia attack 0.721 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Reggina (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Perugia xG
38%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Perugia kick off?
Reggina vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Perugia?
Reggina 2 - 3 Perugia.
Where is Reggina vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Perugia part of?
Reggina vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 69% chance of winning, Perugia a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Reggina and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Reggina and Perugia in?
Reggina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Perugia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.50) and Perugia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.72x) against Reggina's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
69%
1.45
20%
4.93
11%
9.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.52
0.59
Perugia xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
9.48
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
2%
64.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reggina and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Reggina and 0.59 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Perugia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 16L across 47 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Reggina against 1.26 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 13W 2D 8L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Perugia's away record stands at 7W 8D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggina have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Perugia in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Perugia have gone 14W 17D 16L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Perugia away?
Reggina's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.78 PPG; Perugia away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Reggina or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Perugia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2023, when Perugia 1-3 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 30%, Perugia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Reggina) and 44% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Perugia in 30%; Reggina have failed to score in 30% of games; Perugia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Reggina's recent matches and 52% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Reggina's recent games and 44% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Perugia tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Perugia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Reggina 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Reggina 2-3 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.92 xG and Perugia 0.59 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 0.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.50 / defence 0.73 against Perugia attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 69% | Draw 20% | Perugia 11%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Perugia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 38%, Perugia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.40 PPG, Perugia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.