Pisa 1-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Perugia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 2D 0L from 7 Serie B appearances (2.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Perugia have posted 3W 3D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 7 games (71%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.60 (Perugia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 57% versus Perugia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 29% | Perugia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.02 xG and Perugia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.034 / defence 0.872 | Perugia attack 0.793 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.157. Data: 14 Pisa games / 14 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 33% | Perugia 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Perugia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 43% | Perugia 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 33% | Perugia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Pisa 1.02 / Perugia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.034 / def 0.872 | Perugia attack 0.793 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Perugia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Perugia kick off?
Pisa vs Perugia kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Perugia?
Pisa 1 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Pisa vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Perugia part of?
Pisa vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 39% chance of winning, Perugia a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pisa and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Perugia in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.03) and Perugia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
39%
2.55
33%
2.99
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.82
0.80
Perugia xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pisa and 0.80 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Pisa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 4D 2L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 5W 6D 3L from 14 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Perugia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Perugia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Perugia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Perugia have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Perugia away?
Pisa's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.43 PPG; Perugia away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Pisa or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Perugia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pisa's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Perugia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Pisa 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Perugia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 43%, Perugia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Pisa and 43% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Perugia in 71%; Perugia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pisa's recent matches and 29% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Pisa's recent games and 43% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Perugia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Perugia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Perugia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Perugia finished level at 1-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.02 xG and Perugia 0.80 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Perugia attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 39% | Draw 33% | Perugia 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 29%, Perugia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.