Cosenza 0-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Monza arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cosenza lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Monza — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 56% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 44% | Monza 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.10 xG and Monza 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.888 / defence 1.495 | Monza attack 1.102 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.056. Data: 32 Cosenza games / 33 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 21% | Draw 29% | Monza 50%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 2.00. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Monza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 21% | Draw 29% | Monza 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Cosenza 1.10 / Monza 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.888 / def 1.495 | Monza attack 1.102 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Monza (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Monza xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Monza kick off?
Cosenza vs Monza kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Monza?
Cosenza 0 - 2 Monza.
Where is Cosenza vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Monza part of?
Cosenza vs Monza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 21% chance of winning, Monza a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cosenza and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Monza in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.89x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.10x) against Cosenza's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
21%
4.69
29%
3.47
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.83
1.74
Monza xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
26.70
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.74 for Monza, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 5W 10D 17L from 32 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 7L across 32 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 5W 3D 7L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.66 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Monza in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 5W 10D 17L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Monza have gone 17W 8D 7L in their last 32 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.20 PPG; Monza away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Cosenza 0-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 53%, Monza 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cosenza) and 47% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cosenza's recent games and 47% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Monza tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Monza in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Cosenza 0-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.10 xG and Monza 1.74 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.89 / defence 1.50 against Monza attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 21% | Draw 29% | Monza 50%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 44%, Monza 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.