Pisa 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Pisa take on Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Brescia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.70 PPG, Brescia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Brescia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Brescia in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 47% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 31% | Brescia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.02 xG and Brescia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.030 / defence 0.969 | Brescia attack 0.909 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.085. Data: 32 Pisa games / 32 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Brescia 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Pisa 1.02 / Brescia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.030 / def 0.969 | Brescia attack 0.909 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Brescia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Brescia kick off?
Pisa vs Brescia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Pisa 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Pisa vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Brescia part of?
Pisa vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 33% chance of winning, Brescia a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pisa and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Pisa and Brescia in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Brescia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.03) and Brescia's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.98
0.96
Brescia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pisa and 0.96 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 16W 10D 6L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 15W 12D 5L from 32 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.81 PPG, Brescia on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (9W 6D 1L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 9W 5D 2L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.53 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Brescia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Brescia have gone 15W 12D 5L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Brescia away?
Pisa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.06 PPG; Brescia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pisa or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Brescia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Brescia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Brescia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 44%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Pisa and 31% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Brescia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pisa's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pisa's recent games and 31% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Brescia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Brescia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 33, as Pisa and Brescia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.02 xG and Brescia 0.96 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Brescia attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 31%, Brescia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.81 PPG, Brescia 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.