Benevento 1-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Benevento's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benevento lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 44% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 41% | Vicenza Virtus 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 2.53 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.518 / defence 1.075 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.661 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.061. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — their λ of 2.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Benevento games / 33 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 74% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 7%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.35 | Draw 5.26 | Vicenza Virtus 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 60% | Vicenza Virtus 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 74% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 50% | xG Benevento 2.53 / Vicenza Virtus 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.518 / def 1.075 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.661 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Benevento (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Benevento 1 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 74% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benevento and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 0W.
What form are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus in?
Benevento (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.53. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.66x) against Benevento's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
74%
1.35
19%
5.38
7%
13.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Benevento xG
Total xG
3.29
0.75
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
13.93
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
8%
12.59
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
1%
175.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Benevento and 0.75 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 16W 9D 7L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 6W 7D 19L from 32 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 2D 11L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 games (1.78 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 6W 7D 19L in their last 32 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Benevento's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.87 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Benevento or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Benevento 1-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Vicenza Virtus 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Benevento and 60% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benevento's recent matches and 47% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Benevento's matches and 60% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Benevento and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Vicenza Virtus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 2.53 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.75 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.52 / defence 1.07 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.66 / defence 1.58, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 74% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 7%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 41%, Vicenza Virtus 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.