Benevento 3-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Crotone travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Benevento carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 0 for Crotone and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Crotone in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 41% versus Crotone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 33% | Crotone 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 2.05 xG and Crotone 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.276 / defence 1.010 | Crotone attack 0.748 / defence 1.584. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.105. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.584 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Benevento games / 28 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 63% | Draw 25% | Crotone 12%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Crotone 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 40% | Crotone 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 63% | Draw 25% | Crotone 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 2.05 / Crotone 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.276 / def 1.010 | Crotone attack 0.748 / def 1.584 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Benevento (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Crotone xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Crotone kick off?
Benevento vs Crotone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Crotone?
Benevento 3 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Benevento vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Crotone part of?
Benevento vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 63% chance of winning, Crotone a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Benevento and Crotone in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Crotone (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.28x the league average against Crotone's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
63%
1.58
25%
3.99
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.89
0.83
Crotone xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
65.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Benevento and 0.83 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Crotone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 13W 8D 6L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone's form line: 2W 9D 16L from 27 games, 0.56 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 3D 11L from 14 away games — 0.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 0.96 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Crotone in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Crotone have gone 2W 9D 16L in their last 27 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Crotone away?
Benevento's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.79 PPG; Crotone away: 0.21 PPG.
Have Benevento or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Crotone in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Crotone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Benevento 3-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Crotone?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 43%, Crotone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Benevento) and 50% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 36% of games; Crotone in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Benevento's recent matches and 57% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Crotone tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Crotone in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crotone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Crotone 3-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 2.05 xG and Crotone 0.83 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.28 / defence 1.01 against Crotone attack 0.75 / defence 1.58, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 63% | Draw 25% | Crotone 12%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 33%, Crotone 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Crotone's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Crotone (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.