Brescia 1-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Brescia take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 8D 1L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Brescia, 1.10 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Brescia 0W, Bari 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Bari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 46% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 29% | Bari 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.78 xG and Bari 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.762 / defence 0.887 | Bari attack 0.909 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Brescia's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Brescia games / 48 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Bari 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 50% | Bari 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Brescia 0.78 / Bari 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.762 / def 0.887 | Bari attack 0.909 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bari xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Bari kick off?
Brescia vs Bari kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Bari?
Brescia 1 - 2 Bari.
Where is Brescia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Bari part of?
Brescia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 26% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Brescia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 2W.
What form are Brescia and Bari in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Bari (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.76) and Bari's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.91x) against Brescia's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.82
38%
2.65
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.75
0.96
Bari xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Brescia and 0.96 for Bari, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 18D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.54 PPG from 48 outings (18W 20D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.27 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Bari in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 12W 18D 18L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 18W 20D 10L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.17 PPG; Bari away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Brescia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 6-2 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
4
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Bari have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bari 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Brescia and 25% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Bari in 38%; Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Brescia's recent games and 25% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Bari tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Brescia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.78 xG and Bari 0.96 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against Bari attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 29%, Bari 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.