Brescia 0-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Brescia take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brescia host Modena at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 1.50 PPG versus Modena's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brescia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brescia have won 1, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Modena trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 47% versus Modena 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 30% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.823 / defence 0.877 | Modena attack 0.907 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.161. Data: 45 Brescia games / 47 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 39% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Modena 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 60% | Modena 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 39% | Modena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Brescia 0.88 / Modena 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.823 / def 0.877 | Modena attack 0.907 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Modena xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Modena kick off?
Brescia vs Modena kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Modena?
Brescia 0 - 1 Modena.
Where is Brescia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Modena part of?
Brescia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 29% chance of winning, Modena a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Brescia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Brescia and Modena in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.82) and Modena's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
39%
2.59
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.80
0.92
Modena xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Brescia and 0.92 for Modena, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 18D 17L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.30 PPG from 47 outings (16W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.15 PPG, Modena on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 6W 10D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Modena in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 12W 18D 17L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Modena away?
Brescia's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.22 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Modena specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 52%, Modena 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Brescia) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Brescia's games and 61% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Brescia's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Modena tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Modena in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Brescia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Brescia 0-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.92 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brescia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 29% | Draw 39% | Modena 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 30%, Modena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.15 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.