Brescia 1-1 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to face Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season.
Alessandria (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Brescia's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Brescia 1W, Alessandria 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Alessandria half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 48% versus Alessandria 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Alessandria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.24 xG and Alessandria 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.905 / defence 1.193 | Alessandria attack 0.953 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.140. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Brescia games / 21 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 33% | Draw 32% | Alessandria 35%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Alessandria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alessandria at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brescia (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Alessandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 33% | Draw 32% | Alessandria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Brescia 1.24 / Alessandria 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.905 / def 1.193 | Alessandria attack 0.953 / def 1.409 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alessandria xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Alessandria kick off?
Brescia vs Alessandria kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Alessandria?
Brescia 1 - 1 Alessandria.
Where is Brescia vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Alessandria part of?
Brescia vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 33% chance of winning, Alessandria a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Brescia and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Brescia and Alessandria in?
Brescia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Alessandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.91x the league average against Alessandria's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.95x) against Brescia's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.10
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Alessandria xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Brescia and 1.30 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 11W 6D 4L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria's form line: 6W 3D 12L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L). That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.10 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 games (1.86 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Alessandria away?
Brescia's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.30 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Brescia or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Alessandria in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Brescia
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Brescia 1-1 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Alessandria?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 60%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Brescia) and 50% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Alessandria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Brescia's games and 50% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Brescia's recent games and 50% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Alessandria tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Alessandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Alessandria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.24 xG and Alessandria 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Alessandria attack 0.95 / defence 1.41, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 33% | Draw 32% | Alessandria 35%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Alessandria 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Alessandria's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alessandria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.