Reggina 1-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Crotone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Reggina welcome Crotone to Stadio Oreste Granillo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crotone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggina at 0.40 PPG versus Crotone's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reggina have won 0, Crotone 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reggina trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Crotone trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 38% versus Crotone 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 33% | Crotone 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.03 xG and Crotone 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.775 / defence 1.367 | Crotone attack 0.765 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.167. Reggina's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Reggina games / 21 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 28% | Draw 35% | Crotone 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Crotone 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crotone as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 50% | Crotone 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 28% | Draw 35% | Crotone 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Reggina 1.03 / Crotone 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.775 / def 1.367 | Crotone attack 0.765 / def 1.391 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Crotone (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Crotone xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Crotone kick off?
Reggina vs Crotone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Crotone?
Reggina 1 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Reggina vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Crotone part of?
Reggina vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 28% chance of winning, Crotone a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reggina and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 1 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Reggina and Crotone in?
Reggina (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.78) and Crotone's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
28%
3.60
35%
2.85
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.25
1.22
Crotone xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reggina and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Reggina and 1.22 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggina's recent record stands at 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 11L across 21 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crotone's away record stands at 0W 3D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Crotone in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Crotone have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Crotone away?
Reggina's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.10 PPG; Crotone away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reggina
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Reggina 1-0 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Crotone?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 50%, Crotone 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Reggina) and 40% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Reggina have failed to score in 50% of games; Crotone in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Reggina's games and 60% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Reggina's recent games and 40% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Crotone tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Crotone in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Crotone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Crotone 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.03 xG and Crotone 1.22 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crotone landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Crotone attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 28% | Draw 35% | Crotone 37%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 33%, Crotone 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Crotone's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.