Vicenza Virtus 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Cosenza to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vicenza Virtus 0.70 PPG, Cosenza 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vicenza Virtus, 1 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 52% | Cosenza 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.59 xG and Cosenza 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.110 / defence 1.499 | Cosenza attack 0.732 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.192. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Vicenza Virtus games / 21 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Cosenza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vicenza Virtus at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.59 / Cosenza 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.110 / def 1.499 | Cosenza attack 0.732 / def 1.506 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cosenza xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 1.11x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.40
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Cosenza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.31 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 3W 2D 16L from 21 games, a 0.52 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 11L across 21 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 0.52 PPG, Cosenza on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vicenza Virtus have managed 1W 2D 7L from 10 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 4D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.81 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 3W 2D 16L in their last 21 games (0.52 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Cosenza away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.50 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vicenza Virtus's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Cosenza 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 60%, Cosenza at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vicenza Virtus) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 40% of games; Cosenza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 70% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vicenza Virtus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 22, as Vicenza Virtus and Cosenza drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.59 xG and Cosenza 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cosenza landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 / defence 1.50 against Cosenza attack 0.73 / defence 1.51, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 52%, Cosenza 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vicenza Virtus 0.52 PPG, Cosenza 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.