Alessandria 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alessandria take on Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Lecce at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alessandria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecce have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lecce are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alessandria, 1 for Lecce and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alessandria trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lecce trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 46% versus Lecce 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 32% | Lecce 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.81 xG and Lecce 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.851 / defence 1.074 | Lecce attack 0.817 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.165. Data: 22 Alessandria games / 22 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 38% | Lecce 37%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.00 | Draw 2.63 | Lecce 2.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 30% | Lecce 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 38% | Lecce 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Alessandria 0.81 / Lecce 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.851 / def 1.074 | Lecce attack 0.817 / def 0.994 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lecce xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Lecce kick off?
Alessandria vs Lecce kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Lecce?
Alessandria 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Alessandria vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Lecce part of?
Alessandria vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 25% chance of winning, Lecce a 37% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Alessandria and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Lecce in?
Alessandria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.92
38%
2.65
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.84
1.02
Lecce xG
3.92
25%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.02 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alessandria come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 4D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (11W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alessandria's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Alessandria are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.64 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Lecce in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 9D 2L in their last 22 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.27 PPG; Lecce away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lecce in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alessandria and Lecce runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Lecce have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-1 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 36%, Lecce 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Alessandria and 36% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lecce in 36%; Alessandria have failed to score in 27% of games; Lecce in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Alessandria's recent matches and 46% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Alessandria's recent games and 36% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Lecce tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lecce in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 23, as Alessandria and Lecce drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.81 xG and Lecce 1.02 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 25% | Draw 38% | Lecce 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 32%, Lecce 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.