Alessandria 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alessandria vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Pisa at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alessandria — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alessandria have won 0, Pisa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 40% versus Pisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 35% | Pisa 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.72 xG and Pisa 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.804 / defence 1.018 | Pisa attack 0.799 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Data: 20 Alessandria games / 20 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 24% | Draw 36% | Pisa 40%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Pisa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Alessandria's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 30% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 24% | Draw 36% | Pisa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Alessandria 0.72 / Pisa 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.804 / def 1.018 | Pisa attack 0.799 / def 0.919 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pisa xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Pisa kick off?
Alessandria vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Pisa?
Alessandria 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Alessandria vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Pisa part of?
Alessandria vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Alessandria and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Pisa in?
Alessandria (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.19
36%
2.78
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.73
1.02
Pisa xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 17.9 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.02 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alessandria's recent record stands at 6W 2D 12L from 20 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 3L across 20 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alessandria have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alessandria are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.35 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Pisa in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 11W 6D 3L in their last 20 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.30 PPG; Pisa away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Pisa in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 30%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Alessandria and 30% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa in 40%; Alessandria have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Alessandria's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alessandria's recent games and 30% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Pisa tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.72 xG and Pisa 1.02 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Pisa attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 24% | Draw 36% | Pisa 40%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 35%, Pisa 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.