Parma 4-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Parma take on Pordenone.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Pordenone travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Ennio Tardini this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 0.90 PPG versus Pordenone's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Parma have won 1, Pordenone 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 4–0 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Pordenone in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 52% versus Pordenone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 38% | Pordenone 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.00 xG and Pordenone 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.724 / defence 0.993 | Pordenone attack 0.746 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.192. Parma's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Parma games / 21 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 38% | Pordenone 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Pordenone 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Pordenone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 38% | Pordenone 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Parma 1.00 / Pordenone 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.724 / def 0.993 | Pordenone attack 0.746 / def 1.454 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pordenone xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Pordenone kick off?
Parma vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pordenone?
Parma 4 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Parma vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pordenone part of?
Parma vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Pordenone a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Parma and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Parma and Pordenone in?
Parma (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Pordenone (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.72) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
38%
2.66
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Parma xG
Total xG
1.89
0.88
Pordenone xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Parma and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Parma and 0.88 for Pordenone, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 10D 6L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.57 PPG from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.81 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 5W 10D 6L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Pordenone away?
Parma's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.10 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Parma or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pordenone in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Parma
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Parma 4-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pordenone?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Pordenone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Parma and 50% for Pordenone.
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 30% of games; Pordenone in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Pordenone tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Parma run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pordenone 4-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.00 xG and Pordenone 0.88 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Pordenone attack 0.75 / defence 1.45, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 34% | Draw 38% | Pordenone 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 38%, Pordenone 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm. Pordenone (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.