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Poisson model rates Benevento at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Cesena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cesena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.29 xG and Cesena 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cesena attack 0.857 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Cesena games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 41% | Draw 30% | Cesena 29%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Cesena 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Cesena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L • Cesena away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 41% | Draw 30% | Cesena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Benevento 1.29 / Cesena 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cesena attack 0.857 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benevento (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cesena xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cesena kick off?
Benevento vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cesena part of?
Benevento vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 41% chance of winning, Cesena a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benevento and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cesena?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Benevento and Cesena in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Cesena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L • Cesena away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Benevento vs Cesena?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture