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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Carrarese welcome Benevento to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.70 xG and Benevento 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.957 / defence 0.950 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Carrarese games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 56% | Draw 26% | Benevento 18%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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