Modena 3-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Hellas Verona travel to Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena at Alberto Braglia this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.30 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 51% versus Hellas Verona 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 51% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.59 xG and Hellas Verona 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.945 / defence 0.961 | Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.186. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Modena games / 5 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.59 / Hellas Verona 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.945 / def 0.961 | Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Modena (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hellas Verona xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Modena vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Modena 3 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Modena vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Hellas Verona part of?
Modena vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 50% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Hellas Verona in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.94) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.64
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Modena xG
Total xG
2.57
0.98
Hellas Verona xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Modena and 0.98 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Modena have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 17W 11D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona's form line: 5W 13D 25L from 43 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.81 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 5W 13D 25L in their last 43 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Hellas Verona away?
Modena's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.57 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Modena or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Hellas Verona runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Modena
0
Draws
0
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Hellas Verona?
From 1 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Modena 3-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Hellas Verona?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Hellas Verona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Modena and 57% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 57% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Modena's matches and 57% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Modena and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Hellas Verona 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Hellas Verona 3-2 at Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.59 xG and Hellas Verona 0.98 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 51%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.