Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 50%, yet in-form Ascoli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Ascoli at Stadio Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Druso, Sudtirol have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 3W 1D 1L from 5 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sudtirol's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 60% and Ascoli 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 20% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.34 xG and Ascoli 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.946 / defence 0.796 | Ascoli attack 0.834 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.184. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Sudtirol games / 5 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Ascoli 4.55. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ascoli (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Ascoli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Sudtirol 1.34 / Ascoli 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.946 / def 0.796 | Ascoli attack 0.834 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ascoli xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Ascoli kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ascoli part of?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 50% chance of winning, Ascoli a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sudtirol and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.95x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.54
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.13
0.79
Ascoli xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.79 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 2.20 PPG, Ascoli on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Sudtirol's scoring rate against Ascoli's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ascoli in 60%.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Sudtirol or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ascoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Ascoli runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
From 5 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 60%, Ascoli 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sudtirol and 40% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sudtirol's games and 60% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sudtirol's recent games and 40% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Ascoli finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Druso, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.34 xG and Ascoli 0.79 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 20%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 2.20 PPG, Ascoli 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.