Arezzo 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Città di Arezzo to face Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arezzo have collected 1.20 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 2W 0D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Arezzo against 1.10 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 60% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arezzo 80% | Cremonese 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.930 / defence 1.583 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Arezzo games / 5 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 36% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 40%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Cremonese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 60% | Cremonese 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Città di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 36% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Arezzo 1.51 / Cremonese 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.930 / def 1.583 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Cremonese xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Cremonese kick off?
Arezzo vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
What was the final score in Arezzo vs Cremonese?
Arezzo 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Arezzo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Cremonese part of?
Arezzo vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 36% chance of winning, Cremonese a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Arezzo and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Cremonese in?
Arezzo (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.93) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.86x) against Arezzo's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.20
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Arezzo xG
Total xG
3.13
1.62
Cremonese xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.62 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arezzo's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Arezzo against 1.00 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Arezzo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arezzo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Arezzo
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Cremonese?
From 1 meetings on record, Arezzo have won 0, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arezzo and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Arezzo 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 60%, Cremonese 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Arezzo and 60% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Arezzo's recent matches and 40% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Arezzo's matches and 60% of Cremonese's.
Do Arezzo and Cremonese tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arezzo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arezzo and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Città di Arezzo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arezzo 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.62 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arezzo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arezzo attack 0.93 / defence 1.58 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arezzo 36% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 40%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arezzo 80%, Cremonese 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arezzo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arezzo 1.20 PPG, Cremonese 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arezzo managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.