Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale plays host to Virtus Entella versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Virtus Entella's home record at Stadio Comunale: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Juve Stabia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Virtus Entella lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 53% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 37% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.995 / defence 0.964 | Juve Stabia attack 0.975 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Virtus Entella games / 38 Juve Stabia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 48% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 4.17. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Virtus Entella as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 70% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 48% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Virtus Entella 1.51 / Juve Stabia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.995 / def 0.964 | Juve Stabia attack 0.975 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia part of?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 48% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Virtus Entella (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 0.99x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.97x) against Virtus Entella's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.52
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.52
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.01 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 10W 12D 16L from 38 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. Virtus Entella haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 10L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. Juve Stabia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.37 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 7D 3L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Pre-Season
Juve Stabia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Juve Stabia away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.79 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 68%, Juve Stabia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Virtus Entella) and 53% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Virtus Entella's games and 58% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 53% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.