Ternana 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ternana take on Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Brescia meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Brescia (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Brescia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ternana 0W, Brescia 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 50% versus Brescia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Brescia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.00 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.007 / defence 0.898 | Brescia attack 0.904 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.193. Data: 47 Ternana games / 44 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 31% | Draw 39% | Brescia 30%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Brescia 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Brescia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 31% | Draw 39% | Brescia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Ternana 1.00 / Brescia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.007 / def 0.898 | Brescia attack 0.904 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brescia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Brescia kick off?
Ternana vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Ternana 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Ternana vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Brescia part of?
Ternana vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 31% chance of winning, Brescia a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ternana and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
Record (4 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 2 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Ternana and Brescia in?
Ternana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.01) and Brescia's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.90x) against Ternana's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 47/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
39%
2.57
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.97
0.97
Brescia xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ternana and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ternana and 0.97 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 13D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (11W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Ternana against 1.11 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.91 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Brescia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Brescia away?
Ternana's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.36 PPG; Brescia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Ternana or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brescia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
3
Draws
3
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Brescia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Brescia 0-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 46%, Brescia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ternana) and 46% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 27% of games; Brescia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ternana's recent matches and 46% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ternana's recent games and 46% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Brescia tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brescia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.00 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Brescia attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 31% | Draw 39% | Brescia 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Brescia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.07 PPG, Brescia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.