Bari 2-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 44%, yet in-form Mantova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bari vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Mantova to Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 4 matches, Mantova stand at 2W 1D 1L — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 1.75 PPG return is 0.65 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Mantova trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 75% and Mantova 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 50% | Mantova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.44 xG and Mantova 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.958 / defence 1.195 | Mantova attack 0.857 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.069. Data: built from Bari's last 42 games and Mantova's last 4.
Result probabilities: Bari 44% | Draw 29% | Mantova 28%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.28 | Draw 3.51 | Mantova 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 70% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 50% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 44% | Draw 29% | Mantova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bari 1.44 / Mantova 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.958 / def 1.195 | Mantova attack 0.857 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Bari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mantova xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Bari vs Mantova kick off?
Bari vs Mantova kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Mantova?
Bari 2 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Bari vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Mantova part of?
Bari vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 44% chance of winning, Mantova a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bari and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bari vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Mantova's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 42 games and Mantova's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.51
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bari xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Mantova xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bari and 1.09 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-D-D in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bari heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
Bari (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Bari vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Mantova in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Mantova have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bari
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Mantova?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 3, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Mantova?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 75%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bari) and 50% (Mantova).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Mantova matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bari's games and 50% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bari's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Bari's recent matches and 50% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Mantova 2-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.44 xG and Mantova 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mantova landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Mantova attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 44% | Draw 29% | Mantova 28%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Mantova 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mantova arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Bari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bari scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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