Reggiana 1-3 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Reggiana at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Sudtirol.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sudtirol make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Reggiana (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Reggiana at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sudtirol away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Reggiana against 1.40 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Reggiana edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2024, ended Reggiana 1–1 Sudtirol — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Sudtirol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Sudtirol 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Reggiana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 1.030 / defence 1.051 | Sudtirol attack 0.884 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.061. Data: built from Reggiana's last 42 games and Sudtirol's last 42.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 47% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 24%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.14 | Draw 3.37 | Sudtirol 4.23. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 40% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights