Mantova 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Salernitana at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Mantova have the edge — a 0.53 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mantova register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Salernitana in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 67% and Salernitana 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mantova 67% | Salernitana 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.98 xG and Salernitana 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.135 / defence 1.241 | Salernitana attack 0.984 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.098. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Mantova games / 3 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 52% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 25%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Salernitana 4.00. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 67% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 52% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Mantova 1.98 / Salernitana 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.135 / def 1.241 | Salernitana attack 0.984 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Mantova (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Salernitana xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Salernitana kick off?
Mantova vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Salernitana?
Mantova 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Mantova vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Salernitana part of?
Mantova vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 52% chance of winning, Salernitana a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Mantova and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Salernitana in?
Mantova (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-W-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mantova's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.32
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.32
1.34
Salernitana xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Mantova and 1.34 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salernitana by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 2.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Salernitana in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Salernitana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Salernitana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Salernitana 2-0 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 67%, Salernitana at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Mantova and 100% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mantova's games and 100% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Mantova's matches and 100% of Salernitana's.
Do Mantova and Salernitana tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.98 xG and Salernitana 1.34 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salernitana landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.14 / defence 1.24 against Salernitana attack 0.98 / defence 1.34, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 52% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 25%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 67%, Salernitana 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salernitana arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.