Frosinone 0-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Frosinone take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bari (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Frosinone against 1.40 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 63% and Bari 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 60% | Bari 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.03 xG and Bari 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.789 / defence 1.067 | Bari attack 0.885 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.087. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Frosinone games / 43 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 33% | Draw 34% | Bari 33%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 40% | Bari 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 33% | Draw 34% | Bari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Frosinone 1.03 / Bari 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.789 / def 1.067 | Bari attack 0.885 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bari xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Bari kick off?
Frosinone vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Frosinone 0 - 3 Bari.
Where is Frosinone vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Bari part of?
Frosinone vs Bari is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 33% chance of winning, Bari a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Frosinone and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Bari in?
Frosinone (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Frosinone vs Bari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.79) and Bari's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.89x) against Frosinone's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
34%
2.98
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.06
1.02
Bari xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.02 for Bari, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 8W 14D 21L from 43 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 9W 19D 15L across 43 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Frosinone against 1.07 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bari's away record stands at 2W 9D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.07 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bari in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Bari in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while Bari have gone 9W 19D 15L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Bari away?
Frosinone's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.33 PPG; Bari away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Frosinone 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Bari?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 67%, Bari 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Frosinone) and 48% (Bari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Frosinone's games and 62% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Frosinone's matches and 48% of Bari's.
Do Frosinone and Bari tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bari run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Frosinone 0-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.03 xG and Bari 1.02 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Bari attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 33% | Draw 34% | Bari 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 60%, Bari 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.88 PPG, Bari 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.