Juve Stabia 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Palermo travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Juve Stabia have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Juve Stabia 25% | Palermo 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 25% | Palermo 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.99 xG and Palermo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.828 / defence 0.995 | Palermo attack 0.857 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.069. Data: 4 Juve Stabia games / 42 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 34% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Palermo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 25% | Palermo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 34% | Palermo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Juve Stabia 0.99 / Palermo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.828 / def 0.995 | Palermo attack 0.857 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Palermo xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Palermo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Juve Stabia 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Palermo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 35% chance of winning, Palermo a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juve Stabia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-D-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.93
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.91
0.91
Palermo xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.91 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palermo heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Juve Stabia have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Palermo in 25%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Palermo have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Juve Stabia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Palermo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Palermo 2-2 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Palermo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juve Stabia 25% BTTS, Palermo 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Juve Stabia and 0% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 50% of games; Palermo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 25% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 0% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Juve Stabia 1-3 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.99 xG and Palermo 0.91 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Palermo attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 34% | Palermo 31%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 25%, Palermo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Palermo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juve Stabia shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.