Cremonese 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia's away record: 1W 8D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.50 PPG, Spezia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Cremonese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Spezia, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Cremonese winning.
The historical record gives Cremonese a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 45% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Spezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.04 xG and Spezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.873 / defence 0.888 | Spezia attack 0.959 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.069. Data: 42 Cremonese games / 42 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 34% | Spezia 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Spezia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Spezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 34% | Spezia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Cremonese 1.04 / Spezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.873 / def 0.888 | Spezia attack 0.959 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Spezia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Spezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Spezia part of?
Cremonese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Spezia a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cremonese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 3W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Spezia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.87x the league average against Spezia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.73
34%
2.97
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.95
0.91
Spezia xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.91 for Spezia, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 10D 11L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (11W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (3W 10D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while Spezia have gone 11W 19D 12L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Spezia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.85 PPG; Spezia away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Spezia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cremonese
3
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Spezia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Spezia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 40%, Spezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 55% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Spezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 55% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cremonese and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Spezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.04 xG and Spezia 0.91 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 0.89 against Spezia attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 34% | Spezia 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.