Sudtirol 0-0 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sudtirol welcome Pescara to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Pescara — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pescara's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 0 for Pescara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pescara trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Pescara 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 38% | Pescara 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.50 xG and Pescara 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.823 / defence 0.841 | Pescara attack 0.957 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.124. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Sudtirol games / 29 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Pescara 22%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pescara 4.55. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Pescara 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Pescara 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Sudtirol 1.50 / Pescara 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.823 / def 0.841 | Pescara attack 0.957 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Pescara xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pescara kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pescara kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Pescara?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Pescara.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pescara part of?
Sudtirol vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 50% chance of winning, Pescara a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sudtirol and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Pescara 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pescara in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Pescara (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Pescara's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.58
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.41
0.90
Pescara xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.90 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 8W 13D 8L from 29 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Pescara, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 14L across 29 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pescara heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pescara's away record stands at 1W 5D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.31 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Pescara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pescara in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 13D 8L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Pescara have gone 5W 10D 14L in their last 29 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pescara away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.36 PPG; Pescara away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Pescara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Pescara.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 50%, Pescara 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sudtirol) and 71% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sudtirol's games and 71% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Sudtirol's matches and 71% of Pescara's.
Do Sudtirol and Pescara tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pescara in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Pescara finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.50 xG and Pescara 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pescara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.37, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Pescara 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 38%, Pescara 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pescara's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.