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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vicenza Virtus lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Vicenza Virtus games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 47% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 4.00. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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