Ascoli 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ascoli at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Pisa.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Pisa in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ascoli's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Pisa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ascoli, 1.50 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Pisa and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Ascoli 0–1 Pisa — a Pisa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Pisa — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Pisa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 37% | Pisa 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ascoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.12 xG and Pisa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.739 / defence 0.793 | Pisa attack 0.997 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Ascoli's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Pisa's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ascoli's projected output up. Ascoli have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Pisa's projected output down. Data: built from Ascoli's last 75 games and Pisa's last 75.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 38% | Draw 35% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.65 | Draw 2.90 | Pisa 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ascoli 40% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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