Lecco 2-3 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecco vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lecco's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lecco's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Modena (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lecco 0W, Modena 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lecco half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 54% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 54% | Modena 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.89 xG and Modena 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.690 / defence 1.248 | Modena attack 0.827 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Lecco's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Lecco games / 75 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 25% | Draw 34% | Modena 41%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Modena 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lecco 50% | Modena 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 25% | Draw 34% | Modena 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Lecco 0.89 / Modena 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.690 / def 1.248 | Modena attack 0.827 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Modena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Modena xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Modena kick off?
Lecco vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Modena?
Lecco 2 - 3 Modena.
Where is Lecco vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Modena part of?
Lecco vs Modena is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 25% chance of winning, Modena a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lecco and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Lecco and Modena in?
Lecco (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Modena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.69) and Modena's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.83x) against Lecco's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
25%
3.99
34%
2.97
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.10
1.21
Modena xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lecco and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Lecco and 1.21 for Modena, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Lecco have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 6W 8D 23L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 9W 17D 11L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecco.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lecco have posted 0.78 PPG from 18 outings (4W 2D 12L).
On the road, Modena have gone 3W 11D 4L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecco are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.03 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Modena in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 6W 8D 23L in their last 37 games (0.70 PPG), while Modena have gone 9W 17D 11L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.78 PPG; Modena away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Lecco 2-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Modena see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 50%, Modena 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lecco) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 39% of games; Modena in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lecco's games and 67% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lecco's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecco and Modena tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Modena in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Lecco 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Lecco 2-3 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.89 xG and Modena 1.21 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lecco beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.69 / defence 1.25 against Modena attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 25% | Draw 34% | Modena 41%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 54%, Modena 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.