Reggiana 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Parma at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggiana, 0 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 49% versus Parma 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.61 xG and Parma 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.630 / defence 1.223 | Parma attack 1.031 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Parma's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Reggiana games / 75 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 14% | Draw 30% | Parma 57%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 7.14 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Parma (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 40% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 14% | Draw 30% | Parma 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Reggiana 0.61 / Parma 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.630 / def 1.223 | Parma attack 1.031 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Parma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Parma xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Parma kick off?
Reggiana vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Parma?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Reggiana vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Parma part of?
Reggiana vs Parma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 14% chance of winning, Parma a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Reggiana and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Parma in?
Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-2 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
14%
7.41
30%
3.34
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.08
1.48
Parma xG
7.41
14%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
54%
1.84
Win to Nil
3%
32.41
31%
3.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 18.3 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.48 for Parma, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana's recent record stands at 10W 16D 11L from 37 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 4L across 37 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reggiana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 3W 10D 5L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 10W 5D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.76 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Parma in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 10W 16D 11L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Parma have gone 21W 12D 4L in their last 37 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.06 PPG; Parma away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Parma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
2
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Parma have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Reggiana 1-1 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 56%, Parma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Reggiana) and 61% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 39%; Reggiana have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Reggiana's games and 56% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Reggiana's recent games and 61% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Parma tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Parma in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Parma finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.61 xG and Parma 1.48 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.63 / defence 1.22 against Parma attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 14% | Draw 30% | Parma 57%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Parma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.