Spezia 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Venezia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Spezia, 1.90 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Venezia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Spezia 2W, Venezia 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Venezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 46% | Venezia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.99 xG and Venezia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.794 / defence 0.919 | Venezia attack 1.184 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Spezia's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Spezia games / 75 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 32% | Venezia 41%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 60% | Venezia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 32% | Venezia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 0.99 / Venezia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.794 / def 0.919 | Venezia attack 1.184 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Venezia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Venezia kick off?
Spezia vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Spezia 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Spezia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Venezia part of?
Spezia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 27% chance of winning, Venezia a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Spezia and Venezia in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.18x) against Spezia's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
27%
3.74
32%
3.08
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.27
Venezia xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Spezia and 1.27 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 14W 30D 32L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 34W 17D 25L from 76 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (9W 16D 13L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 14W 9D 15L from 38 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 30D 32L in their last 76 games (0.95 PPG), while Venezia have gone 34W 17D 25L in their last 76 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.13 PPG; Venezia away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Spezia 2-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Venezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 47%, Venezia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 55% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 42% of games; Venezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Spezia's recent matches and 55% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 55% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Venezia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.99 xG and Venezia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Venezia attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 27% | Draw 32% | Venezia 41%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 46%, Venezia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.