Sudtirol 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Palermo have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Sudtirol's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Palermo 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Palermo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Palermo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.50 xG and Palermo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.986 / defence 0.937 | Palermo attack 1.087 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Sudtirol games / 75 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 43% | Draw 29% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 20% | Palermo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 43% | Draw 29% | Palermo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sudtirol 1.50 / Palermo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.986 / def 0.937 | Palermo attack 1.087 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palermo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Palermo kick off?
Sudtirol vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Sudtirol vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Palermo part of?
Sudtirol vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 43% chance of winning, Palermo a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sudtirol and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.09x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.41
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.70
1.19
Palermo xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.19 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 28W 27D 20L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 25W 27D 23L from 75 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.36 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.54 PPG from 37 outings (14W 15D 8L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 15D 13L from 37 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 28W 27D 20L in their last 75 games (1.48 PPG), while Palermo have gone 25W 27D 23L in their last 75 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Palermo away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.54 PPG; Palermo away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palermo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Palermo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 46%, Palermo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Sudtirol) and 46% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Sudtirol's games and 65% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sudtirol's recent games and 46% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Palermo tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Palermo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.50 xG and Palermo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Palermo attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 43% | Draw 29% | Palermo 28%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 35%, Palermo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.48 PPG, Palermo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.