Feralpisalo 0-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ternana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Feralpisalo and Ternana meet at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Feralpisalo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Feralpisalo at Stadio Leonardo Garilli this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ternana (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Ternana have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Feralpisalo, 1.10 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ternana in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Feralpisalo, 1 for Ternana and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Ternana winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 60% versus Ternana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 60% | Ternana 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.85 xG and Ternana 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.132 / defence 1.580 | Ternana attack 1.142 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Feralpisalo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Feralpisalo games / 75 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 33% | Draw 23% | Ternana 44%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Ternana 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 80% | Ternana 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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