Juve Stabia vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Arezzo travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arezzo — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo's away record: 3W 0D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.30 PPG versus Arezzo's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Arezzo trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 57% versus Arezzo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 43% | Arezzo 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.63 xG and Arezzo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / defence 0.932 | Arezzo attack 0.894 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Juve Stabia games / 7 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 49% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Arezzo 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Arezzo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 49% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Juve Stabia 1.63 / Arezzo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / def 0.932 | Arezzo attack 0.894 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arezzo xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Arezzo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 49% chance of winning, Arezzo a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juve Stabia and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Arezzo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.61
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.68
1.05
Arezzo xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.05 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.29 PPG, Arezzo on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.14 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.33 PPG; Arezzo away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juve Stabia 33% BTTS, Arezzo 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Juve Stabia and 67% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arezzo in 33%; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 33% of games; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 33% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Juve Stabia's matches and 67% of Arezzo's.
Do Juve Stabia and Arezzo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.