Monza 1-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Monza welcome Alessandria to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Alessandria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Monza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Alessandria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 30% | Alessandria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.63 xG and Alessandria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.008 / defence 0.968 | Alessandria attack 0.883 / defence 1.613. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.613 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Monza games / 10 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 51% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 21%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Alessandria 4.76. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Alessandria 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 51% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.63 / Alessandria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.008 / def 0.968 | Alessandria attack 0.883 / def 1.613 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Monza (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Alessandria xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Alessandria kick off?
Monza vs Alessandria kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Alessandria?
Monza 1 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Monza vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Alessandria part of?
Monza vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 51% chance of winning, Alessandria a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Alessandria in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Alessandria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.57
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Monza xG
Total xG
2.60
0.97
Alessandria xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Monza and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Monza and 0.97 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza's recent record stands at 3W 5D 2L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 6L across 10 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Monza have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alessandria's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alessandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria in 60%.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Alessandria away?
Monza's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.50 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Monza or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Alessandria in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Alessandria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Alessandria 0-3 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Alessandria?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Monza and 25% for Alessandria.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alessandria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 50% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Monza's recent games and 25% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Alessandria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Alessandria 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.63 xG and Alessandria 0.97 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alessandria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Alessandria attack 0.88 / defence 1.61, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 51% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 21%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 30%, Alessandria 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alessandria's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Alessandria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.