Alessandria 0-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Parma at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alessandria — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alessandria have posted 3W 1D 4L at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alessandria at 1.30 PPG versus Parma's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Alessandria in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 41% versus Parma 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 35% | Parma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.95 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.709 / defence 1.066 | Parma attack 0.829 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.227. Alessandria's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Alessandria games / 17 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 37%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Alessandria 38% | Parma 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Alessandria 0.95 / Parma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.709 / def 1.066 | Parma attack 0.829 / def 1.358 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Parma xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Parma kick off?
Alessandria vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Parma?
Alessandria 0 - 2 Parma.
Where is Alessandria vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Parma part of?
Alessandria vs Parma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 31% chance of winning, Parma a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Alessandria and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Parma in?
Alessandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
31%
3.26
32%
3.14
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.04
1.08
Parma xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.08 for Parma, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alessandria come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 2D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (4W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alessandria on 1.00 PPG, Parma on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alessandria's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Alessandria are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.12 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Parma in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Parma have gone 4W 8D 5L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Parma away?
Alessandria's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.25 PPG; Parma away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alessandria and Parma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Parma 2-2 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 38%, Parma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Alessandria) and 75% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Alessandria's recent matches and 62% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alessandria's recent games and 75% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Parma tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Parma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Alessandria 0-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.95 xG and Parma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alessandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Parma outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Parma attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 37%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 35%, Parma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alessandria 1.00 PPG, Parma 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.