Udinese 0-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 1D 1L at Dacia Arena — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 0D 2L across 5 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Udinese, 1.80 for Fiorentina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 20% and Fiorentina 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Udinese 60% | Fiorentina 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.48 xG and Fiorentina 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.998 / defence 1.253 | Fiorentina attack 0.907 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.645. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Udinese games / 5 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 47%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Fiorentina 2.13. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 33% | Fiorentina 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Udinese 1.48 / Fiorentina 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.998 / def 1.253 | Fiorentina attack 0.907 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Fiorentina xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Udinese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Udinese 0 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Fiorentina part of?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 31% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Udinese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.91x) against Udinese's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
31%
3.27
22%
4.46
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.35
1.87
Fiorentina xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
5%
21.22
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Udinese and 1.87 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Udinese's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Fiorentina in 100%.
Defensively: Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.33 PPG; Fiorentina away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Udinese or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Udinese
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Udinese, 100% for Fiorentina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Udinese and 100% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Udinese's games and 100% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Udinese's matches and 100% of Fiorentina's.
Do Udinese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Udinese 0-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.48 xG and Fiorentina 1.87 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Fiorentina attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 31% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 47%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 60%, Fiorentina 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.